Forecasts

For every moment, Murmur answers one question before anyone knows the answer: will it still hold at least half of its attention one week after it was first measured? The probability, the baseline and the deadline are fingerprinted with SHA-256 the moment they are issued, so a forecast cannot be quietly improved later. Every one is scored when it is due, including the misses.

Every forecast

Score = 100 × (1 − (p − outcome)²). Confident and right scores close to 100, confident and wrong close to 0, and a coin flip always scores 75. To show any skill, Murmur has to beat 75 and the base rate.